September 12th's update is here! TLDR? Here's the summary.

September 13th's update is here! TLDR? Here's the summary.

September 14th's update is here! TLDR? Here's the summary.

No updates on Thursdays.

September 16th's mini-update is here, because western journalists are bad at their jobs. Here's the in-thread comment.

Today and tomorrow I'm gonna be doing some prep as I'm moving in a few weeks. The updates will continue as planned on Monday.

:Care-Comrade: to you all.

Links and Stuff

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Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists, for the “buh Zeleski is a jew?!?!” people.

Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can, thank you.


Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins


Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map, who is an independent youtuber with a mostly neutral viewpoint.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)

Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict and, unlike most western analysts, has some degree of understanding on how war works. He is a reactionary, however.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.


Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ Gleb Bazov, banned from Twitter, referenced pretty heavily in what remains of pro-Russian Twitter.

https://t.me/asbmil ~ ASB Military News, banned from Twitter.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday Patrick Lancaster - crowd-funded U.S journalist, mostly pro-Russian, works on the ground near warzones to report news and talk to locals.

https://t.me/riafan_everywhere ~ Think it's a government news org or Federal News Agency? Russian language.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ Front news coverage. Russian langauge.

https://t.me/rybar ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

With the entire western media sphere being overwhelming pro-Ukraine already, you shouldn't really need more, but:

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


Last week's discussion post.


  • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
    hexagon
    M
    hexbear
    48
    2 years ago

    Ukraine is saying that Russia is increasingly using hypersonic missiles.

    However, I have great news for Ukraine: the media has told me that Russia only has 50 hypersonic missiles because they ran out of chips for them, so it should be over soon.

    • keepcarrot [she/her]
      hexbear
      25
      2 years ago

      A thing that struck me as weird about that narrative (russia only has 50 hypersonic missiles because of chip shortages)is that you don't need that advanced chip technology on the hypersonic missile. The calculations are pretty simple in flight, the complicated part is the engineering of the missile. Working around the skin of the missile getting super hot, making sure the materials can handle buffeting and heat etc. But even then, I'm sure Russia has more than 50 computers that can run autocad.

      idk. brain things.

        • sharedburdens [she/her, comrade/them]
          hexbear
          9
          edit-2
          2 years ago

          From the teardowns I saw on NYT , a lot of their communications stuff is uniform across a wide variety of platforms (which is a good thing for them from a material shortage standpoint), and the hardware required to make millisecond-level flight controls based on that is not going to be ITAR controlled at all. From this it looks like you can expect the same satnav hardware in hypersonic missiles, their HIMARS equivalents, and their attack helicopters, and from the components I saw it's largely consumer/automotive grade stuff too. Even if the chips on those boards are coming from western sources/companies right now, it's not unthinkable that direct replacements for that sort of stuff could be coming from China.

          *one caveat to this is that I'm talking about making course corrections based on a pre-configured trajectory vs satnav. Hitting a moving target based on a radar signature is a much different animal, and hasn't been what the russians demonstrated so far.

        • keepcarrot [she/her]
          hexbear
          4
          2 years ago

          (after writing this, I feel like the tone may look hostile? I don't mean to be, I just enjoy talking about this stuff. You're all good)

          Not to claim any sort of expertise here, and we're also talking about military stuff that's under wraps. No posting of blueprints of kalibr missiles to win online arguments haha.

          I remember online discussions of the dongfeng and the kalibr missiles. and people making this point. Friction from the air heats up the skin of the missile, causing problems with comms and detection, as well as limiting the materials used on the surface. Which, yes, is definitely a real thing that happens. However, I always felt that western observer's assumption that this was insurmountable was wrong. Bafflingly so.

          Not that it's trivial to work around, but I always felt like it could be worked around in a number of ways.

          • My first go-to would be to have an exterior surface that relies on a part in front of it to create a shockwave that deflects most of the air away from it. The shielding part would obviously gain a lot of heat, but the area behind it wouldn't suffer as much friction heat. Imagine the common image of a space shuttle coming in from orbit. The bottom gets very hot, the top part stays pretty cool. The soviet experience with supercavitation (albeit in torpedoes) is helpful here.
          • Another method could be to blast the surface in question with refrigerants. The pressure from the refrigerants boiling could also move hot outside air away in the above method, and the refrigerants boiling would also cool the surface. Obviously, you'd have to carry a reservoir of refrigerant, but you'd need it for maybe 30 minutes or so max, and a small amount of liquid can turn into a lot of gas.

          Based on what early reporting was saying about these design issues, I think western observers assumed a combination of gyros and accelerometers with detailed terrain maps for striking stationary targets. idk what they assumed for moving targets (the armchair generals just kind of assumed that a dongfeng couldn't hit a moving target like an aircraft carrier).

          We know now that kalibrs are indeed functional weapons that can hit things, and also go very fast. So there is clearly some sort of solution at play. Given the cheapness and accuracy of modern consumer grade GPS tech (especially since kalibr missiles aren't riding in elevators), and that the solutions I've listed don't rely on particularly precise technology or dense computing, and that a hypersonic cruise missile is about as fast as the fastest air defence missiles (uh, I can expound on this point if you want), I think that kalibr isn't reliant on particularly fast computing in the missile.

          I also think that "the west" has neglected both cruise missile and strategic AA technology, which tbf is fine for the wars they fight.

      • jackmarxist [any]
        hexbear
        16
        2 years ago

        Westoids don't know that China has a solid chip manufacturing industry which has reached 7nm recently. So, only one gen behind it's peers and still fast enough for modern computing.

      • PorkrollPosadist [he/him, they/them]
        hexbear
        11
        edit-2
        2 years ago

        For real. A Raspberry Pi 4B would be overkill for the task. In most cases, the computers applied in aerospace are pretty low tech. You don't want the latest bleeding edge 7 nanometer chips in these things. You want simple, dumb, resilient microcontrollers which have been cranked out on the same process for 20 years, who's physical limitations and failure modes are well understood. PID controllers work like fucking magic, but they are relatively simple computer programs which can be implemented in less than a kilobyte of instructions if necessary.

        • meth_dragon [none/use name]
          hexbear
          5
          2 years ago

          reminds me of that one anecdote from raytheon or somewhere where their missile avionics guys had a memory leak and instead of debugging it they just figured out how much was gonna be leaked over the flight time of the missile, doubled it, and stuck approximately that much more ram in

        • keepcarrot [she/her]
          hexbear
          5
          2 years ago

          hehe yeah, I've coded my own PID controllers for flight stabilisers before. Good fun. I get bored tuning them though.

    • A_Serbian_Milf [they/them]
      hexbear
      21
      2 years ago

      They coped and made a statement “uh the interception rate is quite low, 90% still hit”

      If they had intercepted a hypersonic missile we would have heard of it. The interception rate is 0%

    • Flaps [he/him]
      hexbear
      21
      2 years ago

      Dont tell them Russia is increasing it's supply of tactical dishwashers

      • BynarsAreOk [none/use name]
        hexbear
        10
        edit-2
        2 years ago

        Indeed they launched one prototype, or rather I think it was the first reported use from a Mig-31 if I'm not mistaken.