August 1st's update is here! TLDR? Here's the summary.

Go here for live updates on the Taiwan situation.

August 2nd's update is here!

August 3rd's update is here! TLDR? Here's the summary.

No updates on Thursdays.

August 5th's update is here! TLDR? Here's the summary.

August 6th's update is here! TLDR? Here's the summary.

No updates on Sundays.

Links and Stuff

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Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can, thank you.


Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins


Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map, who is an independent youtuber with a mostly neutral viewpoint.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)

Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict and, unlike most western analysts, has some degree of understanding on how war works. He is a reactionary, however.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.


Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ Gleb Bazov, banned from Twitter, referenced pretty heavily in what remains of pro-Russian Twitter.

https://t.me/asbmil ~ ASB Military News, banned from Twitter.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday Patrick Lancaster - crowd-funded U.S journalist, mostly pro-Russian, works on the ground near warzones to report news and talk to locals.

https://t.me/riafan_everywhere ~ Think it's a government news org or Federal News Agency? Russian language.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ Front news coverage. Russian langauge.

https://t.me/rybar ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

With the entire western media sphere being overwhelming pro-Ukraine already, you shouldn't really need more, but:

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


Last week's discussion post.


  • SoyViking [he/him]
    hexbear
    54
    2 years ago

    People on Telegram are seething with rage what China didn't take the Yankee bait and start a hot war between nuclear powers. Do these people just want to die in nuclear hellfire?

    China will respond to this and China will work to dismantle US imperial power but they are going to be smart about it instead of acting out in rash emotional attacks that could easily lead to a world war.

          • A_Serbian_Milf [they/them]
            hexbear
            23
            2 years ago

            Chinese government needs to put up or shut up. They make large statements then take tiny actions. Everyone sees it. It does not look good.

            The correct stance is either to pull the trigger to get what you want by economic and military force, or quietly bide your time until you can. Don’t just swing around wildly with threats and then back down.

              • A_Serbian_Milf [they/them]
                hexbear
                29
                edit-2
                2 years ago

                They are correct. Action or nothing. China always manages to fumble almost every foreign policy action. I say this as constructive criticism, I fully support the PRC I am just always frustrated by them making the wrong call.

                The need to get a phone line to DPRK and consult them, because DPRK is WAY better about their stances geopolitically. The problem is that PRC is trying to have their cake and eat it too right now in regards to US relations, they want to enjoy trade and investments but also want to remove the shackles imposed on them to contain them by the US.

                You can’t have both. The US only does business this way, they do not treat third world colonized nations as equals the way China wishes to. The deal of Chinese rapprochement by Nixon/Kissinger/Deng was one of master and subordinate. They need to accept this and purge the last of the pro-American fantasies and sympathizers from their government, the time of fooling Americans into moving their means of production to your shores is over. They are onto the plan, time to enter the next phase.

                Xi it’s time to hit the communism button and nationalize American assets and mass sell off American holdings. Seize Taiwan.

              • Praksis [any]
                hexbear
                7
                2 years ago

                they're censoring shit about pelosi's visit which is pretty funny

      • gueybana [any]
        hexbear
        10
        2 years ago

        Let's be honest, would anybody in Washington or Beijing be genuinely upset with the news that Pelosi's plane has been shot down?

        That's just successful diplomacy.

        • plov_mix [comrade/them]
          hexbear
          35
          2 years ago

          Literally no one liked Franz Ferdinand. They still went to war over his interrupted car ride

          • Vncredleader [he/him]
            hexbear
            2
            2 years ago

            I mean no one was willing to go to war for that either, the miscommunication, complex treaties, and dick measuring all tied in with horrid timing is what went wrong. it was a series of half-assed bluffs that all accidentally became real

    • A_Serbian_Milf [they/them]
      hexbear
      32
      edit-2
      2 years ago

      Would have been nice if China at least escorted Pelosi’s plane away and started patrols above Taiwan airport as a show of force.

      Instead they talked big and then blinked. If you are not willing to go through with anything, don’t talk big. This isn’t the first time China has done this either - they talk big with Solomon Islands and Pakistan and then don’t back it up when the US calls them on their bluff. Stop endangering others with your cocky cowardice, either shit or get off the pot.

      If China wasn’t going to respond they should have downplayed this. Now they look weak and bullied, and all the axis of resistance will see Russia as the rightful leader and not China (bad)

    • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
      hexagon
      M
      hexbear
      24
      2 years ago

      I'm loving the people on Russian telegram who are like "This plays right into Putin's hands, this has fucked over both the EU and US"

      Is it possible for something to be both copium and the correct analysis? Because I think I've found it

    • BynarsAreOk [none/use name]
      hexbear
      20
      2 years ago

      I think the correct analysis right now is that even though it is bait it is also the beginning of an extremely dangerous slippery slope that could escalate very quickly. What is just a regional conflict could escalate because it appears many western ghouls are now loving the idea of trying to distract the people from the coming winter misery with a new world war and a bigger boogeyman. Hey if the economy finaly crashes and people start starving/freezing then blame Putin China!

      Clearly it is obvious the Ukraine war is now decided and they don't care anymore, maybe they'll even try to make amends with Putin in order to then turn and focus on China.

      The point is if China doesn't act decisively this is very scary and nobody knows where it will lead.

      • A_Serbian_Milf [they/them]
        hexbear
        16
        edit-2
        2 years ago

        Wars of de-colonizing unification against colonists are good actually, I say this unironically

          • A_Serbian_Milf [they/them]
            hexbear
            16
            edit-2
            2 years ago

            I would support a war of liberation in Palestine, or one of de-colonizing Israel by Iran. I support DPRK invading occupied Korea to liberate it. I support Russia’s countering of coups in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Syria and Ukraine. I support class war and national liberation and anti-imperialist struggle

            It doesn’t need to be right now, but China better fucking do something about Taiwan. Wait a week then blockade it and siege it if needed. Sell off American holdings and dump USD, nationalize American assets and Taiwanese assets. They cannot allow themselves to keep getting walked all over, not right now in this pivotal moment of global opportunity.

              • A_Serbian_Milf [they/them]
                hexbear
                14
                edit-2
                2 years ago

                Taiwan is a rogue comprador state and a liability to all of Asia, and willing participant in Western containment of China. Siege is the compromise, China is well within their ability and rights to seize the island by force

                • AssortedBiscuits [they/them]
                  hexbear
                  11
                  2 years ago

                  And what happens after they seize the island? This isn't a videogame where once you win against your opponent, their units entirely disappear and the entire area is at your disposal. Unlike the situation in Crimea and the Donbass with Russians who are sympathetic towards Russia, the vast majority of Taiwanese don't want to be part of the PRC. This is reality, regardless of whether you believe they are brainwashed or mentally colonized or whatever. They do not want to be part of the PRC. The main reason Russia was even able to successfully take Crimea is because unlike Taiwan, Crimeans culturally identify with Russians and have faced persecution from the rest of Ukrainian society, meaning they were more than willing to join the Russian Federation.

                  Taiwan isn't like Tibet because the vast majority of Tibetans do not want their own sovereign landlocked country but would rather hitch their wagon on to China. Taiwan isn't like Xinjiang because the people of Xinjiang, both Uyghurs and Han, would rather be a part of the world's largest economy than be like Kyrgyzstan. Taiwan isn't like Hong Kong, where even at the height of the protests, there was an equal amount of counterprotests by people who supported the PRC and 1c2s. The vast majority of Taiwanese do not want to be part of the PRC.

                  Having said that, nothing is set in stone. And it's incumbent on the PRC to make the case for reunification to the people of Taiwan. Fortunately for the PRC and unfortunately for the West, most Taiwanese do not want independence either, but would rather adhere to the status quo where Taiwan exists in this weird political limbo. But the status quo is a form of soft reunification since Taiwan's economy gets further entwined with the Mainland with each passing year, which is why the US has to resort to these cringey hail marys because in lieu of some major disaster, reunification is inevitable.

                  Besides, the real strength of the PRC isn't in its military but its economy. And faced with a geopolitical rival that's experiencing record levels of inflation, among other economic woes, why would the PRC stoop to the level of some tinpot dictator instead of hitting where it really hurts? Like seriously, how would a jet escort actually hurt the US? Hell, even shooting down the fucking plane wouldn't do much either. Great, some senile ghoul who's too senile to do her daily tasks is no longer around to be useless dead weight in the halls of Congress.

                  • A_Serbian_Milf [they/them]
                    hexbear
                    5
                    edit-2
                    2 years ago

                    The vast majority of people in Israel and USA don’t want to de-colonize either. Tough titties, the dialectic of history moves on and compradors and colonizers will be swept away

                    At the very least China needs to install a puppet government in Taiwan and oust the imperialists

                  • BynarsAreOk [none/use name]
                    hexbear
                    4
                    edit-2
                    2 years ago

                    And what happens after they seize the island? This isn’t a videogame where once you win against your opponent, their units entirely disappear and the entire area is at your disposal. Unlike the situation in Crimea and the Donbass with Russians who are sympathetic towards Russia, the vast majority of Taiwanese don’t want to be part of the PRC. This is reality, regardless of whether you believe they are brainwashed or mentally colonized or whatever. They do not want to be part of the PRC. The main reason Russia was even able to successfully take Crimea is because unlike Taiwan, Crimeans culturally identify with Russians and have faced persecution from the rest of Ukrainian society, meaning they were more than willing to join the Russian Federation.

                    I think a lot could be said about China and Taiwan relations, but for starters you wont get the full picture here just by looking at random polls. The issue isn't just being part of China, it also includes a significant component of being played as a pawn by American interests against their fellow han Chinese. I think just like in Ukraine many people who otherwise wouldn't want to live in Russia have come to accept that anything was better than what the Ukrainians were doing while trying to defend the territory, and so they've accepted the occupation for what it is, a chance of a better life. Ukraine was already significantly poorer than Russia.

                    Taiwan is already quite dependent on trade and investment with China. The their share of trade with China amounted to 180 billion last year. Taiwan simply can't afford to sustain itself without trading with China.

                    But the point isn't just the economics but the realy material conditions. The west will give you weapons, planes, tanks, missiles, but not jobs or food.

                    For Taiwan the issue will simply be how much of an economic disaster are you willing to accept for some vague idea of national identity. You don't eat nationalism. You don't keep yourself warm at night with nationalism.

                    The question of an occupation to me is not an issue. Everyone speaks the same language and there is already a huge amount of economic integration between both countries. Taiwanese should have no problem acquiring Chinese visas and move to the mainland if necessary.

                    Militarily speaking this war is even more lopsided than Russia vs Ukraine, there is no conceivable way for Taiwan to resist an invasion. The nationalists fervor to use civilians as shields like the Ukrainian Nazis is also not present. Without the US directly intervening(WW3) you should not expect civilian casualties to be particularly high.

                    This is different from Ukraine where they think terrorism against their own population would make them afraid of accepting the Russian occupation.

                  • A_Serbian_Milf [they/them]
                    hexbear
                    13
                    edit-2
                    2 years ago

                    The current one China policy is being openly and flagrantly ignored, much like Minsk II (officially endorsed, de facto ignored). And just like Minsk II, this cannot hold and will erupt soon due to US provocation. The whole world is laughing at the US mockery of China’s sovereignty and China’s inability to do anything about it, nobody actually is respecting the One China policy from the west regardless of their official words.

                    Slow economic, political and diplomatic takeover is the nice way to go about it, but America is going to fight it tooth and nail. Siege is the middle compromise to break Taiwanese separatist factions and regain political control of the island. The violent way involves amphibious assault, artillery and airstrikes on the island.

    • CoolerOpposide [none/use name]
      hexbear
      14
      2 years ago

      China never would have acted so brazenly and given the US a carte blanche to intervene in the reunification with Taiwan by attacking a high ranking US representative.

      Unification will happen on China’s terms, almost certainly in a way that would force the US to go far out of its way to intervene

      • A_Serbian_Milf [they/them]
        hexbear
        11
        2 years ago

        Next time they shouldn’t escalate such threats if they have no plans of acting brazenly

        • CoolerOpposide [none/use name]
          hexbear
          7
          2 years ago

          Nothing about the situation says China has decided to act/not act yet. The repercussions could still be yet to come, not for the US, but for its ally Taiwan

          • A_Serbian_Milf [they/them]
            hexbear
            11
            edit-2
            2 years ago

            I guess we shall see in the coming days and weeks. If China rolls out a massive counter-sanctions package against the US and starts dumping their hoard of USD or nationalizing assets, I will eat my words for being too hasty to judgment. Something tells me it will be something more minor and they will continue to punt the contradictions of their intertwined relationship with the US and keep stalling on the Taiwan question

            I guess I’m just conditioned to be frustrated and pissed at China’s foreign policy (or lack thereof). They sat back and did nothing about Khan in Pakistan after talking big, they have endangered the Solomon Islands with their half-ass security deals that aren’t security deals. I like their internal policies a lot, I just wish they could get a good foreign policy like DPRK or USSR