- cross-posted to:
- askchapo
1
- cross-posted to:
- askchapo
Are my findings credible? - Lemmygrad
lemmygrad.mlHey everyone, you may know me as u/HAMSTERSRULE111 and its been along time since
I have posted back at GenZedong and first time posting here, and during my
absence I have become more anxious over my attempts to verify MSM claims about
China, worried that my findings might not be credible, contain logical
fallacies, or might be to inconclusive. I’m no expert in investigation, just
someone who wants to find the truth. This greatly discouraged me from
researching MSM claims about China… Until now. Please read my findings below and
my concerns, and please comment any issue with them. Thank you.
----------------------------------------------------------------- # Opening
Aside from a handful of testifiers[1], there as been a strange lack of a mass
refugee crisis coming from Xinjiang. What I define by “mass refugee crisis” is
that during a genocide, the persecuted tend to leave in a mass exodus. For
example, 780,000 ethnic Rohingya fled to Bangladesh to escape persecution in
Myanmar[2]. However, there have only been a miniscule amount of asylum seekers
from China in the countries that border Xinjiang. [3] Country - Amount of asylum
applicants from China from 2017 to 2021 according to The UN Refugee Agency
Kazakhstan [4] - 23 Kyrgyzstan [5]- 5 Pakistan [6] - 18 Tajikistan - N/A An
explanation given is that the Chinese Government had made it difficult for
ethnic minorities to leave China in 2016 - 2017[7].
[https://lemmygrad.ml/pictrs/image/a8c257fd-72d1-44cf-a75a-69df82e079b8.png]
However, sources I have found from the Kazakhstani Government do not seem to
support this allegation. They seem to indicate that thousands of ethnic
minorities most potentially being ethnic Kazakhs migrating into Kazakhstan from
China from the years of 2017 to 2021 supposedly when the Xinjiang Crackdown is
in effect[8] # Findings First source is “External migration by country” from
Stat.gov.kz [http://Stat.gov.kz]. Specifically " Number of arrivals to the
Republic of Kazakhstan by country of arrival"[9].
[https://lemmygrad.ml/pictrs/image/35dd99db-455b-4676-9b9f-2622954647d0.jpeg]
Using the data of this table, we can make a line graph of migrants entering
Kazakhstan from other countries.
[https://lemmygrad.ml/pictrs/image/c274410f-0af3-44b7-a124-79cd700455e5.png]
Legend: Blue - China, Orange - Mongolia, Yellow - Turkmenistan, Green -
Uzbekistan, Violet - Russia
[https://lemmygrad.ml/pictrs/image/198826ce-2ad1-41a5-af66-02d04c05f8f6.png]
Without Russia and Uzbekistan
[https://lemmygrad.ml/pictrs/image/d6fb6af0-e347-4fab-946b-f1fa0b6350ae.webp]
China only (Do note the years of 2016 - 2021 saw a lower amount of migrants
relative to the years prior, and some unexpected increases can happen ex:
Mongolia from 3,706 to 7,438 and finally 3,502 people in just three years
respectively) Although, this graph is not incredibly useful on it’s own since it
does not show the ethnic composition of the migrants. Which is where the second
source comes in[10].
[https://lemmygrad.ml/pictrs/image/787bfbc8-b289-46ad-9db1-6b38124b2a80.png] It
is connected to the first source except it allows us to view the ethnicity[11]
of migrants entering Kazakhstan[12].
[https://lemmygrad.ml/pictrs/image/e13af3d5-ea7e-44b5-833b-450e58e2d796.webp]
The table reveals that only a small mount of ethnic Chinese had migrated to
Kazakhstan compared to the amount of arrivals from China. Charts below assume
that all the Ethnic Chinese had migrated from China
[https://lemmygrad.ml/pictrs/image/1a933324-057a-46b0-9415-61ee3828df2f.png]
[https://lemmygrad.ml/pictrs/image/7c6546fc-de7f-4f7b-82b5-afb53cd28b7a.webp] In
2017 - 2021 alone, only 59 ethnic Chinese had migrated to Kazakhstan, while
7,673 people had arrived from China. Which could mean that around 7,614 people
who arrived from China are from an ethnic minority. Most likely ethnic Kazakhs
since Kazakhstan has a campaign to re-immigrate overseas Kazakhs, and at least
13.2% of returning Kazakhs since 1991 have arrived from China[13]. # Conclusion
- Sources from Kazakhstan do not seem to support the notion of a restriction of
movement for ethnic minorities in China moving to Kazakhstan. - The only time
that migration to Kazakhstan from China during 2017 to 2021 was at its lowest is
in 2021 (Only 249 migrants). - The PRC confiscating passports in 2016 to 2017
does not appear to have any observable affect to migration to Kazakhstan. since
the amount of people immigrating to Kazakhstan was 2,114 in 2016 and 3,015 in
2017 compared to only 630 in 2014 and 1,249 in 2015. - Most migrants from China
to Kazakhstan are not Ethnic Chinese.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. https://shahit.biz/eng/#evidence [https://shahit.biz/eng/#evidence] ↩︎
2. https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/rohingya/
[https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/rohingya/] ↩︎
3. Note: These 4 countries are the most likely where refugees would escape
through due to the large population density near them
[https://th.bing.com/th/id/R.0cc053d926e7e937e1b3ab57b6c32ef2?rik=khP%2fW89rSG25yw&riu=http%3a%2f%2fi.imgur.com%2f2BCKPUB.jpg&ehk=0Eyy8KCYxX4cAXwnl5cFHFHAUVJyLFWgaDYy4OaioVw%3d&risl=&pid=ImgRaw&r=0].
↩︎
4. https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/?url=W9sU1n
[https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/?url=W9sU1n] ↩︎
5. https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/?url=KhSDd6
[https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/?url=KhSDd6] ↩︎
6. https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/?url=YjdT1c
[https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/?url=YjdT1c] ↩︎
7. https://xinjiang.amnesty.org/ [https://xinjiang.amnesty.org/] ↩︎
8. Note: These findings do not verify whether or not Uyghurs can move abroad,
however it is still important at verifying anti-China claims since Kazakhs
are said to be persecuted too, and Amnesty International says most of it’s
interviewees are Kazakhs.
[https://preview.redd.it/m0z3kjhi4zm91.png?width=476&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b4130934dabaac5d439b82757d5b46396ca1b68]
↩︎
9. https://stat.gov.kz/api/getFile/?docId=ESTAT418149&lang=en
[https://stat.gov.kz/api/getFile/?docId=ESTAT418149&lang=en] retrieved from
https://stat.gov.kz/official/industry/61/statistic/8
[https://stat.gov.kz/official/industry/61/statistic/8] ↩︎
10. https://taldau.stat.gov.kz/kk/NewIndex/GetIndex/2929752?keyword=
[https://taldau.stat.gov.kz/kk/NewIndex/GetIndex/2929752?keyword=] ↩︎
11. Note: Refed to as “Nationality” or “ұлты” ↩︎
12. Both sources have very correlative “Total/Everything (барлығы)” amounts
[https://preview.redd.it/0sqbbuer6zm91.jpg?width=577&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4ae0b8138e8e5a656834f23729a2be350f96296c],
mostly likely being connected to one another. ↩︎
13. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oralman
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oralman]
https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/enbek/documents/details/12022?lang=kk
[https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/enbek/documents/details/12022?lang=kk]
https://www.bugin.kz/11353-koshi-qon-tauelsizdik-qansha-oralman-elge-oraldy
[https://www.bugin.kz/11353-koshi-qon-tauelsizdik-qansha-oralman-elge-oraldy]
↩︎
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