Here is June 27th's update! TLDR? Here's the summary.

Here is June 28th's update! TLDR? Here's the summary.

Here is June 29th's update! TLDR? Here's the summary.

Here is June 30th's update! TLDR? Here's the summary.

I won't be able to write an update for today and tomorrow (as well as Sunday, my day off) due to work and travel - and honestly, due to overexposure to the words "international rules-based order" and "wage-price inflationary spiral" and "insignificant advances", I probably need a little time to unmelt my brain. I'll post some articles - good or bad - where I have an internet connection.

Links and Stuff

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Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can, thank you.


Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins


Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map, who is an independent youtuber with a mostly neutral viewpoint.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)

Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict and, unlike most western analysts, has some degree of understanding on how war works. He is a reactionary, however.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.


Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ Gleb Bazov, banned from Twitter, referenced pretty heavily in what remains of pro-Russian Twitter.

https://t.me/asbmil ~ ASB Military News, banned from Twitter.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday Patrick Lancaster - crowd-funded U.S journalist, mostly pro-Russian, works on the ground near warzones to report news and talk to locals.

https://t.me/riafan_everywhere ~ Think it's a government news org or Federal News Agency? Russian language.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ Front news coverage. Russian langauge.

https://t.me/rybar ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

With the entire western media sphere being overwhelming pro-Ukraine already, you shouldn't really need more, but:

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


Last week's discussion post.


  • Frogmanfromlake [none/use name]
    hexbear
    56
    2 years ago

    It's amazing how hostile Americans are towards any mention of China, positive or negative. You could show them a picture of a Chinese park and they'd immediately make social credit jokes or say there are cameras in every bush. But you can't do the same with the US because the US is a big country with a wide diversity of opinions.

  • SexMachineStalin [comrade/them]
    hexbear
    46
    edit-2
    2 years ago

    I mentioned the 2014 coup and a guy stood in disbelief, almost genuinely offended like he had caught me "dunkin' deez nutz" in his lunch.

    In 🇪🇪 🔥 so no surprise there.

    • Fartbutt420 [he/him]
      hexbear
      24
      edit-2
      2 years ago

      A good friend is esty, and I've come to accept that we have such wildly different conceptions of reality when it comes to this war and Russia in general that it's just genuinely not worth talking about.

    • Ursus_Hexagonus [he/him]
      hexbear
      5
      2 years ago

      People around me simply insist that it wasn't a coup, or even if it was then they got more democratic in the later elections.

    • CoolerOpposide [none/use name]
      hexbear
      3
      edit-2
      2 years ago

      It wasn’t a coup, to date Ukraine has only fully banned political parties which held a combined 40% of parliamentary seats since 2014

    • kleeon [he/him, he/him]
      hexbear
      35
      edit-2
      2 years ago

      at this point you should not treat the US as a rational actor. Yes, what they're doing makes zero sense

        • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
          hexagon
          M
          hexbear
          14
          2 years ago

          Pretty astounding really. I think I've read several accounts of generals in war games whose immediate response to, like, an Iranian child kicking a rock at the wall of the US military base is instant global thermonuclear warfare. These people so desperately want to kill themselves and everybody around them.

      • ViveLaCommune [any]
        hexbear
        5
        2 years ago

        as michael parenti puts it, it's a "rational output of an unjust and irrational system"

      • CoolerOpposide [none/use name]
        hexbear
        2
        2 years ago

        The US had to change its war sim rules after Iran sunk half of the US navy with dinghies filled with explosives. They are not making decisions based in reality but based on what feels good/the least bad

    • xenobian [he/him,any]
      hexbear
      25
      2 years ago

      Yeah and China and other countries must be thinking they need to divest as much as they can

    • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
      hexagon
      M
      hexbear
      23
      2 years ago

      The US can gyrate and hop up and down frantically and lob their own shit around the room like a disgruntled howler monkey all it wants, if it doesn't affect Russia then gives a shit about the apparent "optics"? If there was ever the illusion that the West knew what it was doing or had halfway competent leadership then that has been thoroughly dispelled right now.

    • SoyViking [he/him]
      hexbear
      7
      2 years ago

      Result of the US-engineered "default":

      • Loss of trust among the bourgeoisie that their money will be safe in the US financial system
      • Loss of trust in the US dollar as a safe currency
      • A bunch of rich, disgruntled financial capitalists with a claim that US public coffers should cover their losses as they are 100% caused by US government policy.
      • Sending a clear signal to China and everyone else with ambitions of sovereignty that they should dedollarize as soon as possible
    • yellowparenti5 [none/use name]
      hexbear
      1
      2 years ago

      at the least its bad PR for them? kinda like the media saying china bad and then conducting a poll of us citizens with the majority of them believing that china is bad.

  • SoyViking [he/him]
    hexbear
    43
    2 years ago

    I really hate the "paying the price for freedom" bit. The ones grandstanding about it are never ever going to be the ones actually paying.

    No western leader is going to end up poor, cold, hungry or unemployed (in any meaningful sense of the world) as a consequence of their decisions. No matter what they do they can count on living in levels of comfort, safety and luxury that most people can only dream of for the rest of their lives.

  • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
    hexagon
    M
    hexbear
    43
    edit-2
    2 years ago

    Every time I see the phrase "international rules-based order", another cluster of neurons in my brain dies. It's just a nonsense phrase at this point, like a runcible spoon. Put that shit in the Jabberwocky poem.

  • kleeon [he/him, he/him]
    hexbear
    42
    2 years ago
    1. put sanctions on russia

    2. russia starts making record profit due to market instability

    3. "oh shit! we gotta put more sanctions on russia!"

    4. repeat until entire global economy fucking collapses

  • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
    hexagon
    M
    hexbear
    42
    2 years ago
    • U.K.'s Johnson says Ukraine war rooted in Putin's "toxic masculinity" CBS

    Putin did a racism. He did an imperialism. He did a nationalism. He did a xenophobia. He did a white fragility. He did no growth. This makes it abundantly clear he doesn't even understand the intersectional nature of the multiplicity of his offenses.

  • euro_chapo [comrade/them]
    hexbear
    40
    2 years ago

    Apparently the LPR is now pretty much entirely liberated.

    LiveUAmap and the map finns still not confirming it, but GeromanAT has plenty of videos showing Russian and LNR troops all over Lysychansk.

    Congratulations, you guys prevailed against NATO-trained Nazis. No easy feat.

  • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
    hexagon
    M
    hexbear
    39
    2 years ago

    Summary

    News

    Europe's industry is in a slow collapse and the gas rationing hasn't even started yet, with Bloomberg saying that any crazy idea should be considered (aside from removing the sanctions - that's just absurd). The EU says that all natural gas storages should be kept at a minimum of 80% for preparation for winter (Germany can last 2.5 months if 100% full). Balkan countries are unhappy at being ignored by the EU for not improving while Ukraine is allowed to join the membership candidacy process. Only 4% of German businesses and 3% Japan's businesses are leaving Russia. Biden and Scholz are forming some kind of bromance. Boris says that the new Northern Ireland trade law which breaks the EU agreement could be passed this year. A significant number of Ukrainians in the UK face homelessness, while in the Netherlands, hundreds of Ukrainian refugees are facing eviction. France's energy situation is fucked and so they need contigency plans, and their public finances are fucked too, meaning that they can't really protect households from surging prices this year.

    Asia's urban water situation is not good, with low freshwater availability and very low efficiency. Inflation and financial strain is really starting to hit Asian countries too. The DPRK denounces US aggression and vows revenge on US imperialists. Japan warns that Tokyo could have power shortages as the heat wave this year came earlier and is more intense than usual. Vietnam says that they could export more rice to help the global food situation. India could be a backdoor into Europe for Russian oil, which I'm sure European economics are very upset about. Sri Lanka sends ministers to Russia to negotiate for oil. Sydney climate protestors block roads and tunnels, making the police and nearby... whatever the Australian version of a chud is (do they also have gammons, like the UK?) very unhappy.

    The US reveals they had a secret meeting with Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar about military cooperation to coordinate their air defenses against Iran. Meanwhile, Iran shoots a rocket into space, and will soon unveil new missiles with 300km range. They will also soon produce 1000 megawatts from a solar energy project. Raisi says that Iran fully backs peace in Yemen as well as lifting the siege. However, food consumption in Iran decreases as prices soar.

    Egypt says that want to power their railways with hydrogen. Angola is doing better on paying off its debts to Chinese banks due to higher oil prices, though China has also helped by giving them a three-year debt moratorium signed in 2020 due to the Angolan recession from 2016-2020. Power cuts in South Africa continue as workers continue to protest. An oil/gas well in Nigeria has been spilling fossil fuels into the Niger Delta for over a week.

    In the US, households are sacrificing their saving flows to keep up current rates of spending, so spending will likely slow down soon. The US military is struggling to fulful its 2022 recruiting goals, at its lowest rates in decades. Canada thinks it could still do a soft landing.

    Protestors in Ecuador are forcing a halt to oil production, according to the government, due to roadblocks. Brazil's military has exacerbated the Amazon's destruction.

    Food export bans by countries like India and Argentina will raise global food prices and fuel inflation if maintained, thus making a deadly positive feedback cycle. The World Bank says that inflation could last two years, and some countries will find it very difficult to avoid recession.

    Conflict and Climate

    Civilians continue to be evacuated from the Azot industrial zone. The US is sending an 'advanced medium-to-long range surface-to-air missile defense system' to Ukraine, as well as artillery ammo and counter-batter radars.

    Russia's neighbours says that the NATO plans aren't good enough, as it assumes that e.g. Estonia would be overrun by Russia for half a year before it would then be retaken by NATO forces, and who knows what heinous war crimes Russia would be framed -- I mean, would definitely, 100% do to the people of Estonia?

    Bloomberg brings up floating cities as one solution to rising sea levels. Drought increases rural suicide rates.

    Dipshittery, Good Takes, and Hope

    Boris says that reports about the death of democracy in the US have been exaggerated, and that America is still the "shining city on the hill". An "ex-CIA" (nobody's really ex-CIA) insider says that Putin's inner circle could oust him because of how badly things are going for them, apparently. A Minnesota publisher succumbs to suburban madness and decides to go commit suicide by going to fight for Ukraine, likely to be soon shot in the back of the head by a neo-Nazi when asked if they can retreat. Zelensky pleads with Belarusians to not let Putin drag them into this war, saying that they're "not slaves and cannon fodder", and that "your lives are worthless to them", without even a hint of irony. Two of Russia's oligarch's wives say that Putin is dying from a secret illness. UK intelligence says that Russia will rely more on reserve forces as Russia continues to lose as they retreat further west into Ukraine. An international human rights lawyer says that right now, and absolutely NOT several decades ago, is the right time to take countries bombing hospitals more seriously.

    Russia slips into a forced default due to the US preventing them from paying money to bond holders, though they have set up an alternative mechanism for them to use in the meantime. Boris says that the "price of freedom is worth paying", referring to the cost of the Ukraine War. Zelensky says that he wants the war over by the end of this year. The G7 bans Russian gold imports, and then Germany says "Wait, hang on, let's talk about this for a little longer, guys!" The G7 also wants a price cap on Russian oil, which will obviously not work if you have even the slightest amount of knowledge on how trade and economics works, which they clearly don't, I guess. The G7 also launches a $600 billion infrastructure plan over 5 years to counter China's BRI, without Biden actually first asking Congress if he can have $200 billion. Politico releases an actually-okay article on the G7, revealing that there's 18,000 (!) police officers guarding them.

    Left organizations in the UK are all in support of the British Rail Strike, as they lead the fight against the cost of living crisis. Latin American feminists are winning abortion rights in even very religious countries, in stark contrast to the fucking disaster in the United States right now.

    • SoyViking [he/him]
      hexbear
      34
      2 years ago

      Politico releases an actually-okay article on the G7, revealing that there’s 18,000 (!) police officers guarding them.

      Democracy is when you deploy a small army to prevent elected leaders from getting close to the people who have to live with the consequences of their decisions.

  • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
    hexagon
    M
    hexbear
    38
    edit-2
    2 years ago

    After Boris Johnson said that "a woman would have never started this war":

    Putin: "In this regard, I just want to recall the events of recent history, when Margaret Thatcher decided to launch military operations against Argentina for the Falkland Islands. Here is a woman who decided to start military operations, where are these islands and where is Britain. And this is dictated by nothing other than imperial ambitions, confirmation of its imperial status."

    I know what (obviously flawed) point Boris is trying to make, but the hidden implication that we should trans Putin is pretty entertaining